Shift Continues in Valley’s Housing Market
By Justin A. Lombard, MBA, e-PRO, Keller Williams Realty Platinum
Turn on the TV or browse through the newspaper, and you’ll notice that it’s difficult to miss the negative press about the Greater Phoenix residential real estate market. Diverse opinions describe the Valley’s housing market as anywhere from “undergoing a moderate correction” to “one of the weakest housing markets in the U.S.” Which statement is more accurate? A brief look at a few key numbers in historical context can give us a truer sense of the state of our market today.
While no one can accurately predict where our housing market is headed, we can make some inferences about where our market might be going based on a consistent track record of more than five decades of growth data.
Then versus Now: The Past Five Years
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) aggregates and publishes sales data from the five Realtor associations that serve Maricopa and western Pinal Counties. ARMLS data does not include properties that are not entered into the MLS, such as those for sale by owner or exclusive listings. At the time of this writing, the most current report available is from May 2007. The accompanying chart offers a comparative snapshot of a few key metrics for the month of May from 2002–07
Historical Sales Data Comparison (2002–07)
Year Inventory Avg Days on Market (ADOM) Sales
(Units) Median Sales Price
May 2002 25,928 63.88 6,321 $151,414
May 2003 26,141 66.50 7,122 $160,696
May 2004 19,850 55.95 8,591 $174,123
May 2005 9,451 25.28 9,080 $249,814
May 2006 41,797 59.99 6,931 $279,566
May 2007 51,013 89.83 5,337 $272,921
Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service—Home Sales Reports
From this data, we can clearly observe the boom cycle of 2004–05, when inventory levels and days on market fell to historical lows and were mirrored by increases in the number of units sold and median sales prices. This is an elegant example of the law of supply and demand at work.
Just as quickly as the market heated up, we see evidence of the cooldown that has been in progress since 2005. The supply of homes for sale jumped rapidly as investors exited the Valley en masse in pursuit of the next great opportunity. The increase in supply, coupled with a drop in the actual number of buyers, has lessened the total number of units sold and is beginning to affect sales prices.
Inventory levels and average days on market (ADOM) in May 2007 remain well above recent historical norms for the month. In May, there were over 51,000 single-family homes for sale, which equates to a ten-month supply of inventory based on unit sales. A balanced market supports around a six-month supply with inventory of 25,000 to 30,000 units, so we should be prepared for a prolonged correction.
Surprisingly, sales prices have remained fairly steady over the past twelve months and have actually risen since the peak demand of 2005. I expect we’ll see continued downward pressure on pricing until the excess inventory is absorbed.
The Future is Bright: Five Decades of Growth, and Counting
While no one knows what the future has in store for Arizona, more than five decades of consistent growth and economic prosperity point to a bright future. Federal data reveals that Arizona has been among the top states in the nation for more than fifty years in key indicators, including population, employment, and personal income growth. Collectively, these growth indicators support a healthy housing market.
Arizona’s Ranking in Key Growth Indicators
Decade Population Growth Employment Growth Personal Income Growth
1950-1960 4th 3rd 4th
1960-1970 3rd 3rd 4th
1970-1980 2nd 3rd 3rd
1980-1990 3rd 3rd 5th
1990-2000 2nd 2nd 3rd
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Economic and personal-income growth fuel population growth by making our state more attractive to nonresidents. High population growth is critical to a sustainable, healthy real estate market.
According to Arizona State University and the Arizona Department of Economic Security, Greater Phoenix has been growing at a pace of more than 100,000 new residents per year since 1995. Furthermore, the U.S. Census Bureau predicts that Arizona’s population will more than double between 2000 and 2030 from about 5.1 million residents to almost 11 million, and will move from its current position as the twentieth- to the tenth-most populous state. Even if we fall short of the government’s prediction by a few million residents, the overall effect on our housing market will remain positive.
Five Building Blocks to a Successful Sale in Any Market
While most industry experts agree that the long-term outlook for the Greater Phoenix real estate market is favorable and balanced, what about today’s home seller? What can he or she do to cope with the challenges of our market?
I’ve put together the following list of five qualities, or building blocks, that any home seller can follow to consistently yield above-average sales results regardless of market conditions. They’re equally important and just as relevant in a seller’s market as they are a buyer’s market.
1. Right-on pricing The most accurate way to develop a pricing strategy is to put yourself in the shoes of a prospective buyer and visit several homes for sale in your community that are similar to yours. Only after you know how your home stacks up against the competition in terms of features, upgrades, and condition can you price it appropriately. Buyers today visit many homes and can immediately notice when a home is not priced consistently with similar homes.
2. Standout staging You should never open your home up to a prospective buyer until it’s ready to show! Buyers in today’s market are rare and valuable commodities, and you will only get one chance to impress them. Whether you lean on the experience of your Realtor, hire a professional home stager, or do it yourself, make sure you’ve tidied up, decluttered, and made necessary repairs or alterations to prepare your home for sale before you put the sign in the yard.
3. Aggressive marketing The goal of any home seller should be massive exposure of his or her home to as large a pool of prospective buyers as possible. Your marketing plan should include a print component to attract local homebuyers, as well as an extensive Internet strategy to attract global buyers. The fewer buyers there are in the market, the more important it is to extend the breadth and depth of your reach.
4. Diligent follow-up Every single buyer who visits your home should receive a follow-up phone call for feedback the day after the showing. Over time, you may receive consistent criticisms that give you the opportunity to adjust on the fly and position yourself more favorably for the next visitor.
5. Smart negotiating Many buyers and sellers focus so intently on getting their price that they overlook other factors that could mean the difference between a successful deal and a parting of ways. Before you rush to the negotiating table and risk losing a valuable buyer or the house of your dreams, take time to learn what’s important to the other party and compare them to your goals. Once you understand how your interests align, you’ll be in a better position to put together a win-win deal.
Justin A. Lombard, MBA, e-PRO is the team leader of award-winning Trust in Justin & the Casa Crew at Keller Williams Realty Platinum. You can visit Justin and his team at trust-in-justin.com.